2025 Sire Watch

NEW CATEGORIES ADDED WEEKLY

 

2022 FRESHMAN SIRE PICK: Justify

2023 FRESHMAN SIRE PICK: Omaha Beach

2024 FRESHMAN SIRE PICK: Vekoma

2025 FRESHMAN SIRE PICK: Charlatan

 

BEST VALUES, $60,000 AND UP

1. WAR FRONT ($75,000, CLAIBORNE FARM, KY)

No sire gives you a better chance of raising a graded stakes horse than War Front. His progeny are talented, tenacious, versatile, and beautifully balanced individuals… and his stakes percentages are a throwback to his legendary sire.

2. INTO MISCHIEF ($250,000, SPENDTHRIFT FARM, KY)

Given what his progeny are bringing at public auction, those with the means should be lined up to the state line for seasons. In 2023 and 2024, Into Mischief registered 25 seven-figure transactions as a sales sire… and we all know how he dominates American racing. His current stud fee is an absolute gift to breeders.

3. CURLIN ($225,000, HILL N DALE FARMS, KY)

Gives investors every opportunity for success at the elite levels, whether it’s in the sales ring or at the racetrack and shows no signs of letting up. Already has an elite son in the breeding shed with Good Magic… with several promising sons in the pipeline including Elite Power and Cody’s Wish. Checks all the boxes for serious breeders looking for home runs.

4. CANDY RIDE ($75,000, LANE’S END, KY)

Falling victim to twilight sire syndrome commercially, but for those looking to reach the pinnacles of racing, don’t let the commercial market sway you from Candy Ride. His influence over the last two decades has been nothing short of breed shaping… with a legacy sure to continue on through Gun Runner, Twirling Candy, and Vekoma.

5. GUN RUNNER ($250,000, THREE CHIMNEYS FARM, KY)

How do you come up with more superlatives for Gun Runner? Firing on all cylinders would be a gross understatement. With yearling averages consistently hovering in the seven-figure neighborhood and his progeny dominating racing headlines, his 2025 fee likely leaves money on the table.

BEST VALUES, $35,000 – $50,000

1. STREET SENSE ($50,000, DARLEY, KY)

Though a bit problematic in terms of fertility, Street Sense is clearly worth the perseverance. The commercial market fancies him at all venues… and his track numbers are bullet proof including surprisingly good numbers when turf mares are sent his way.

2. VEKOMA ($35,000, SPENDTHRIFT FARM, KY)

Our top choice for leading freshman sire last year, Vekoma has not disappointed. The mind-numbing speed we saw from Vekoma and his immediate family is being passed along in spades to his progeny. There’s always a chance of a sophomore slump, but we’d bet against it in the case of Vekoma given that his average earnings per start thus far is just shy of $16,000… significantly higher than Justify at this stage.

3. OSCAR PERFORMANCE ($45,000, MILL RIDGE FARM, KY)

Admittedly, we never had Oscar Performance on our radar early on, but the numbers don’t lie. Superb stakes production including 53% graded stakes winners from overall stakes winners… and he can clearly get athletes that compete at the highest levels. The commercial market is now paying close attention as evidenced by healthy yearling and 2yo numbers in 2024.

4. CITY OF LIGHT ($35,000, LANE’S END, KY)

After a slow start with his first crop back in 2022, City of Light has rebounded like few others in recent memory. Averages and indexes are elite, and even the average ones garner lots of attention at the sales. A standout physical himself, it’s hard to imagine a physical type he wouldn’t compliment.

5. MACLEAN’S MUSIC ($40,000, HILL ‘N’ DALE FARMS, KY)

For the astute breeder who can get the physical compatibility right, Maclean’s Music can create tremendous fireworks both in the sales ring and at the races. You just can’t arbitrarily send any type of mare his way. Yearlings averaged $135,068 in 2024… and that number was likely closer to $200,000 for breeders who understand how to use him properly.

BEST VALUES, $20,000 – $30,000

1. ARMY MULE ($20,000, HILL ‘N’ DALE FARMS, KY)

Relative to his opportunities and the quality of mares sent his way thus far, no sire in central Kentucky is better than Army Mule, particularly when you examine overall graded stakes production. Can’t recall a single sire getting so many graded stakes horses after covering mares with such a modest Comparable Index.

2. BLAME ($25,000, CLAIBORNE FARM, KY)

Can’t send just any mare his way, but if you do your homework and discover what works and what doesn’t, Blame is one of the most reliable sources of elite types that we’ve seen in recent years and you’ll never hear commercial buyers scoff at his influence. Well respected in all circles.

3. TIZ THE LAW ($30,000, ASHFORD STUD, KY)

While his future isn’t written in stone, his current trajectory isn’t far off Constitution’s at this stage of his career. His true test will come with his 3rd and 4th crops, but we believe $30,000 is going to seem like a bargain in a few years. Surprisingly, showing a lot of prowess with turf mares.

4. HARD SPUN ($25,000, DARLEY, KY)

Regardless of your investment goals, Hard Spun should always be under consideration for the astute breeder. A bit unique in terms of what he throws relative to his own physical type, but for the right mares, he’s capable of taking investors to the top echelons of American racing/sales.

5. GIRVIN ($25,000, AIRDRIE STUD, KY)

One of the very best physical specimens you’ll ever lay eyes on, Girvin is on a similar path as Army Mule. Outperforming his opportunities, but could use a few more graded stakes types. With his dam being such a blue hen type, look for his daughters to be formidable in their second careers as well.

BEST VALUES, $10,000 – $15,000

1. KARAKONTIE ($15,000, GAINESWAY, KY)

One of the very best $15,000 sires we’ve seen in a long time. At this price point, it’s rare for nearly half of a sire’s stakes winners to earn those credentials in graded events. Not sure it’s ever been accomplished prior to Karakontie. One of the very best sources on the planet for elite types that can run beyond nine furlongs.

2. KANTHAROS ($12,500, HILL ‘N’ DALE FARMS, KY)

You might not see them running on the first Saturday in May, but on the other 364 days… they’re putting up big numbers in sprints and middle-distance events on all surfaces. Unless you’re looking to win marathons, if you get the physical compatibility right, the sky is the limit when investing in Kantharos.

3. BOLT D’ORO ($15,000, SPENDTHRIFT FARM, KY)

Undoubtedly cooled off in 2024, but in the fall of 2023, he was booked full by September with top shelf mares at a $60,000 fee… making 2025 the perfect time to get on board. While there are no guarantees, there should be an explosion of stakes horses in the coming years, and it may have already begun with Oaks contenders Drexel Hill and Look Forward. We need to remember, we’re less than a year removed from him siring juveniles that sold for $1.2 million and $800,000.

4. MINESHAFT ($10,000, LANE’S END, KY)

Even in his twilight years, when sires tend to plateau and/or drop off, Mineshaft is still putting up elite numbers and siring runners on the biggest stages in racing. Great physical that tends to get even better individuals than himself, his only downside at this stage is he isn’t quite as fertile as he used to be. Tremendous source of class for anyone on a budget.

5. MIDSHIPMAN ($15,000, DARLEY, KY)

Surprising commercial viability for a sire at this stage of his career, and we all know his prowess as a sire of racehorses. In addition to those accolades, he’s turning into a more than formidable broodmare sire with 10% stakes winners from starters and a healthy AEI of 1.83.

BEST VALUES, $7,500 AND UNDER

1. JIMMY CREED ($7,500, SPENDTHRIFT FARM, KY)

A terrific conduit for the legendary influence of Distorted Humor. Across the board, his numbers substantiate just how useful he can be for astute breeders who understand what type of mares work well with him, and equally important, which mares aren’t a good match.

2. SLUMBER ($7,500, ROCKRIDGE STUD, NY)

Four stakes winners, including two U.S. graded stakes winners, from just 21 starters with very little help from the mares sent his way thus far (1.04 Comparable Index). Should be a juggernaut in the restricted New York program in the coming years, but clearly able to get elite types in open company as well.

3. MO TOWN ($5,000, ASHFORD STUD, KY)

By a sire that seldom misses as a sire-of-sires, Mo Town’s early stakes production has been solid with a healthy dose of graded types… from rather ordinary mares. Predictably however, the commercial market is slow to catch on.

4. SHIRL’S SPEIGHT ($5,000, DARBY DAN FARM, KY)

Before scoffing, watch his troubled trip in the 2022 Breeders Cup Mile… then review his epic female family. No one should be surprised if Shirl’s Speight turns into a success story, particularly with Fipke’s support. Classy type that had terrific tactical speed, then scored a G1 at Keeneland going a mile.

5. HONEST MISCHIEF ($7,500, SEQUEL STALLIONS, NY)

Talented, regally-bred horse that seldom gets an ordinary physical, is now putting up promising numbers both within and outside of the New York program. Seven stakes horses from just 36 starters including two in the UAE. Will dominate New York for the next decade.