2009 Stallion Watch:  The Best and the Worst

    ATR developed "Stallion Watch" to incite deeper thought among mare owners shopping for stallion seasons and shares.  These lists will be updated frequently to help our readers recognize some of the better values in different portions of the market, as well as some of the lesser values.  If you agree or disagree with our commentary, we invite you to tell us why.

Please note:  Categories are added periodically.  If you don't see the category you're looking for, we haven't posted it yet.

1.  Concerto ($5,000 Ocala Stud Farm, FL)  -  Puts up strong numbers across the board, many of which are better than most stallions standing for three times this amount in central Kentucky. Particularly adept at getting graded stakes-caliber progeny from moderate mares.

2.  Intidab ($4,000 Shadwell Farm, KY)  -  Highest average earnings per start of any sire in this category.  Improves his mares by a whopping 42% with median earnings of nearly seven times his stud fee.  Ignore the pedigree and pay attention to his results.

3.  Evansville Slew ($2,500 Diamond G Ranch, OK)  -  Few stallions have ever seen such poor mares and come out of it with such a solid reputation.  Not as likely to get you a graded stakes horse, but gets regional stakes horses at a 10% clip. 

4.  Slew City Slew ($5,000 Airdrie Stud, KY)  -  One of the best out there at getting iron horses, Slew City Slew will shore up just about any mare's durability while simultaneously adding plenty of class for regional, mid-level circuits.

5.  Pioneering ($5,000 Overbrook Farm, KY)  -  Impossible to fault in terms of his ability to help breeders on a budget.  Improves mares moderately and gets over 10% stakes winners from starters.  Needs a particular physical type in his mares, but should always be on the radar of those breeding strictly to race.

1.  Ten Most Wanted ($5,000 Magali Farms, CA)  -  Possibly the worst start we've ever seen in a young sire.  Just 2 winners from 41 starters with median earnings of $1,200. Progeny are winning at an unheard of pace: 1%.  Gelding this guy would be a great start at curbing overproduction.

2.  Full Mandate ($5,000 Hartley DeRenzo, FL)  -  With just one stakes winner from 121 starters, investors would be taking a bath even if the fee was complimentary. Hardly suitable for small markets, let alone a major racing state.

3.  Siphon ($5,000 Pin Oak Lane Farm, PA)  -  Consistently gets terrific eye candy, but that's where the fun stops.  Pulls mares down by 36% and barely gets 3.5% stakes winners from starters.  A $1,500 sire at best.

4.  Champali ($5,000 Glencrest Farm, KY)  -  Entirely possible Champali will turn things around, but investors shouldn't bet on it.  Progeny are winning at a paltry 8% clip primarily against maidens with a median earnings per starter only slightly higher than Ten Most Wanted.

5.  During ($5,000 Claiborne Farm, KY)  -  Has just a slightly better chance than Champali to become useful at some point, but mare owners should think twice about writing a $5,000 check.  Showing little or no signs of life at this stage.

1.  Put It Back ($8,500 Bridlewood Farm, FL)  -  After 2,062 combined starts, Put It Back's progeny are winning at a 19% clip with nearly 10% stakes winners from starters, almost half of them graded stakes winners.  Scary to think what's going to happen as better mares start to visit.

2.  Montbrook ($10,000 Ocala Stud Farm, FL)  -  Numbers haven't slid like many in his age category tend to do.  Solid from all angles including healthy average earnings per start/starter and median earnings.

3.  Belong To Me ($10,000 Lane's End Farm, KY)  -  Demonstrated this year that he can get successful progeny at all levels of American racing, including a Breeders Cup winner. As good a source of speed and surface versatility as you'll find in central Kentucky.

4.  Bertrando ($10,000 River Edge Farm, CA)  -  Like Montbrook, Bertrando refuses to let his numbers slide in his twilight years, with progeny winning at a consistent clip against tough California company.  Not quite as prolific as those above in terms of graded stakes production, but still an asset to West Coast breeders.

5.  Petionville ($10,000 Crestwood Farm, KY)  -  Numbers are just a step below those above, but nonetheless, a tried and tested source of useful and ultra-durable types that pay their way more often than not.

1.  Golden Missile ($7,500 Milfer Farm, NY)  -  Barely getting two percent stakes winners from live foals while simultaneously dragging his mares down my 40%.  Much more appropriate at $1,500 in a smaller market. 

2.  Aptitude ($10,000 Juddmonte Farms, KY)  -  Has no business in this price range.  With just seven stakes winners from 251 starters (2.7%) and progeny winning at a measly 12% clip, can't imagine continued support in central Kentucky.

3.  The Cliff's Edge ($7,500 Margaux Farm, KY)  -  Hate to write a horse off this quickly, but with median earnings of $3,494 from 37 starters and an AEI of .78, investors writing $7,500 checks for this guy are asking for trouble.  Fee needs to be divided by three.

4.  Chapel Royal ($10,000 Signature Stallions, FL)  -  Would have expected much more class from a sire who set a record for winners in his freshman season.  Not a single stakes winner from 173 foals and an AEI of .71 paints a dismal picture for those investing at $10,000 in 2009.

5.  Najran ($7,500 Hopewell Farm, KY)  -  Questionable stud fee considering he can't even hit the breed average of a 1.00 AEI after three crops.  Foals win at a decent clip, though they're clearly winning at the lower levels of racing.  Poor long term prognosis.

1. City Zip ($12,500 Lane's End Farm, KY)  -  An ultra consistent source of speed and precocity, City Zip is strong in virtually all categories including a healthy $32,176 median earnings per starter and 9.5% stakes winners from starters.

2. Pleasant Tap ($12,500 Lane's End Farm, KY)  -  Has yet to falter in putting up solid numbers year after year.  Average earnings per starter has been in the six figures for some time now as he continues to improve his mares and get well over 10% stakes winners from starters.

3. Quiet American ($15,000 Darley, KY)  -  One of the very best sources of soundness available today, Quiet American gets equally useful racehorses at all levels and is becoming an even better broodmare sire.

4. Point Given ($15,000 Three Chimneys Farm, KY)  -  Has quietly strung together some very impressive numbers including a 2.20 AEI (versus a 2.02 CI), $7,560 per start, and nearly 50% of his stakes winners are graded.

5. Pure Prize ($12,500 Vinery, KY)  -  Needs just a few more stakes winners to get him up around the 10% benchmark, but otherwise is tough to fault.  Improves mares significantly while his foals are winning at an 18% clip.

1. Kitalpha ($12,500 War Horse Place, KY)  -  Seriously? $12,500 for an unraced horse who's only credentials come from South Africa? Even if you took a zero off his current fee, it would still be too high. Kentucky smoke and mirrors at it's finest.

2. Strong Hope ($15,000 Claiborne Farm, KY)  -  From his first 36 starters, half have earned less than $1,950 with an overall AEI of .35 (versus a 2.11 CI).  Progeny are barely winning at a 10% clip against maidens with not a single stakes horse to date.

3. Touch Gold ($15,000 Adena Springs, KY)  -  Likely carried by his mares (1.52 AEI vs. 2.32 CI) and has yet to demonstrate consistency.  Numbers are more appropriate for the $5,000 price range.

4. Orientate ($12,500 Gainesway Farm, KY)  -  Useful enough, but not in this price range. Stallions in this range need to be getting at least 8% stakes winners from starters without such a significant AEI/CI deficit (1.55 vs. 2.02).

5. Friends Lake ($12,500 Airdrie Stud, KY)  -  Still has a shot at making it long term, but with an AEI below the breed average and median earnings under $6,600, mare owners need to insist on better terms to compensate for the added risk.

1. Smoke Glacken ($17,500 Gainesway Farm, KY)  -  Remains consistent in all statistical categories with a healthy percentage of stakes horse and strong median earnings.  Has never relied upon his mares (1.62 AEI vs. 1.40 CI).

2. Gulch ($20,000 Lane's End Farm, KY)  -  Works well with a wide range of mare populations and gets absolute iron horses that pay their way more often than most.  Industry could use a lot more sires like this guy.

3. Langfuhr ($20,000 Lane's End Farm, KY)  -  Not quite as consistent as the two above in terms of stakes production, but clearly capable of getting the big horse while not compromising on durability.

4. Posse ($20,000 Vinery, KY)  -  A bit limited in terms of the phenotypes he gets, but a solid, useful type nonetheless.  Impressive average earnings per start and improves his mares moderately.

1. Lion Heart ($20,000 Ashford Stud, KY)  -  High-priced two year olds from last year ($191,429 average) may still have an impact, but the numbers suggest a lot of risk for those sending mares to him in 2009.  AEI is just above the breed average, median earnings are only $5,659, and he's getting less than 5% stakes winners from starters.

2. Include ($17,500 Airdrie Stud, KY)  -  Has an interesting statistical profile with solid numbers across the board until you get to stakes production... just 7 stakes winners from 173 starters (4%).  Better suited for investors breeding to race on a budget.

3. Mizzen Mast ($17,500 Juddmonte Farms, KY)  -  Even after a solid year with plenty of headliners, he's still struggling with overall stakes production in spite of being supported by one of the most powerful breeding programs in the world.  Only in need of a slight price adjustment.

4. Officer ($17,500 Taylor Made Farm, KY)  -  A very useful type that does well in most categories except graded stakes production.  Like Mizzen Mast, only needs a slight adjustment.

1. Successful Appeal ($22,500 Walmac Farms, KY)  -  Investors would be hard pressed to find as potent a sire for $50,000, let alone $22,500. Numbers shine across all statistical categories.  Not likely to get the classic horse, but his progeny will pay their way more often than most.

2. Exchange Rate ($25,000 Three Chimneys Farm, KY)  -  Seldom if ever gets a bad looking foal and investors have the luxury of a proven sire with solid commercial appeal.  Improves mares by 37% and is well over the 10% stakes winners from starters threshold.

3. Macho Uno ($25,000 Adena Springs, KY)  -  Hard to imagine a young sire getting off to such a solid start... half of his stakes winners are graded winners and his progeny are earning an average of $7,720 every time they leave the starting gate.

4. Arch ($25,000 Claiborne Farm, KY)  -  Overall stakes production has slipped recently, but he's still getting an amazing 52% graded stakes winners from overall stakes winners with solid numbers in all other categories.

1. Proud Citizen ($30,000 Airdrie Stud, KY) - Simply put, has no business in this price range.  With an AEI just over the breed average (1.15), less than 5% stakes winners from starters, and median earnings per starter of $11,254... needs his 2009 fee divided by at least four.

2. Fusaichi Pegasus ($30,000 Ashford Stud, KY) - Better conformed foals seem to do well enough, but this guy needs a lot of conformation help from his mares.  Just 3% stakes winners from foals and drags his mares down by 42%.

3. El Corredor ($25,000 Hill N Dale Farm, KY) - Gets a decent percentage of graded stakes winners, but struggles in all other statistical categories.  Better suited for the $10,000 price point.

4. Mineshaft ($30,000 Lane's End, KY) - Starting to show some signs of life, but still has to overcome a severe AEI/CI deficit (1.66 vs. 3.09) to avoid the perception that his mares are carrying him.

5. Broken Vow ($30,000 Pin Oak Stud, KY) - A very useful type, but not in this price range considering he's well below the 10% stakes winners from starters benchmark and isn't particularly effective getting graded-caliber stakes horses.  Only in need of a slight reduction.

1. Rahy ($50,000 Three Chimneys Farm, KY) - An industry elite with numbers that can be stacked up against any stallion on the planet.  More than half of his 83 stakes winners (10.6% from starters) are of the graded variety and he improves his mares by 18 percent.

2. Theatrical ($35,000 Hill N Dale Farms, KY) - Well above all statistical thresholds for sires in this price range including a healthy average earnings per starter of $98,411 and 7.3% graded stakes winners from starters.

3. Medaglia d'Oro ($40,000 Stonewall Stallions, KY) - May be sticking our neck out a bit on this one, but all early indicators are encouraging, including the fact that his progeny should only get better as they get older.  Could be a major influence for years to come.

1. Johannesburg ($35,000 Ashford Stud, KY) - Clearly has an ability to get headliners, but his paltry 4.6% stakes winners from starters and 1.24 AEI paints a picture of overall inconsistency. 

2. Forestry ($40,000 Taylor Made Farm, KY) - Continues to ride the coattails of his mares as evidenced by a 1.22 AEI/CI deficit. Can't fault a sire for not overcoming a 2.85 CI, but he should be closer than 1.63 to be at the $40,000 price point.

3. Stormy Atlantic ($45,000 Hill N Dale Farms, KY) - Numbers are decent across the board... but there's nothing statistically to indicate $45,000 quality.  Plenty of sires out there standing for half the money with comparable numbers.

4. Malibu Moon ($40,000 Spendthrift Farm, KY) - Very similar to Stormy Atlantic in that his numbers indicate a solid sire, but not a $40,000 sire.  Too many other cost-effective options available.

1. Distorted Humor ($150,000 WinStar Farm, KY) - Progeny exude class and equally important, tremendous durability. Well over the 10% stakes winners from starters benchmark while improving his mares by 24%.  An incredible asset to the industry.

2. Dynaformer ($150,000 Three Chimneys Farm, KY) - Gets it done at the track and the sales ring with investors doubling their money at yearling sales.  Just hit the century mark with stakes winners and has never ridden the coattails of his mares. Another solid source of durability.

3. El Prado ($75,000 Adena Springs, KY) - Like Dynaformer, began his career in relative obscurity and achieved standout status with little help from his mares.  Strong median earnings of $34,669 and solid durability numbers to boot.

4. Pulpit ($80,000 Claiborne Farm, KY) - Evolving into a potential breed shaping sire as evidenced by the early success of Tapit, Stroll, and Sky Mesa... but an accomplished sire in his own right. A solid investment from most angles.

5. Tiznow ($75,000 WinStar Farm, KY) - Has been near perfect over the last 2-3 years after a slow start.  Slightly lower stakes percentages than the four above, but don't be surprised if he narrows the gap in the near future.