2008 Stallion Watch:  The Best and the Worst

    ATR developed "Stallion Watch" to incite deeper thought among mare owners shopping for stallion seasons and shares.  These lists will be updated frequently to help our readers recognize some of the better values in different portions of the market, as well as some of the lesser values.  If you agree or disagree with our commentary, we invite you to tell us why.

Please note:  Categories are added periodically.  If you don't see the category you're looking for, we haven't posted it yet.  We will work our way down in price point this year, beginning with the $100,000 and up category.  Also, due to the lack of value in this category, we will not post a "Best Value, $100,000 and up".       

1.  Giant's Causeway ($125,000 Ashford Stud, KY)  -  Drastic reduction still doesn't put him where he needs to be for supporters to turn a profit.  Even when riding the coattails of some very nice mares (3.52 CI), he falls short of the 10% stakes winners from starters benchmark, with median earnings per starter of just $13,395.  Plummeting sales numbers are the only thing sustaining his 08 fee, and they will likely continue their free fall.

2.  Mr. Greeley ($125,000 Gainesway Farm, KY)  -  This guy is all smoke and mirrors, and buyers are falling for it in a big way.  Drags his mares down and his progeny average just $4,212 per start.  Most alarming, he's only getting 6.5% stakes winners from starters, a figure well below many sires in the $15,000 price range.  End users need to take a hard look at his overall numbers before investing so heavily in an over-hyped sire.

3.  Unbridled's Song ($125,000 Taylor Made Farm, KY)  -  Very similar to Mr. Greeley in that he gets the right physical types to excel at the sales, but dig into his actual track numbers, and the luster begins to wear off.  Drags his mares down by an incredible 26% and more than 50% of his starters fail to break the $30,000 mark.

4.  Awesome Again ($150,000 Adena Stallions, KY)  -  Unequivocally a great sire, but do his track numbers support the 2008 fee?  Absolutely not, especially considering he fails to get 10% stakes winners from foals despite being supported by one of the world's most powerful racing machines.  Needs his fee cut in half.

5.  Distorted Humor ($300,000 Winstar Farm, KY)  -  Another great sire where the connection's greed is creating financial turmoil for most of his supporters.  His 2007 yearling median fails to cover the stud fee after commissions are paid, and of the three weanlings offered as of this writing, none of them hit the 300k mark.

1.  Johannesburg ($65,000 Ashford Stud, KY)  -  Look below the top tier and you'll find a plethora of investors put out of the business by the progeny of Johannesburg.  Currently getting less than 5% stakes winners from starters, median earnings of $6,301, and drags his mares down considerably (1.31 vs. 1.81).  Ashford needs to drop one of those zeros off his 2008 fee.

2.  Dixie Union ($50,000 Lane's End, KY)  -  Much more respectable numbers than Johannesburg, but Lane's End is still way off target with this one.  No bloodstock investor should ever find themselves writing a $50,000 check for a sire who drags his mares down by over 25%.

3.  Elusive Quality ($75,000 Darley, KY)  -  Statistical profile closely emulates or falls below those of many stallions in the $25,000 range.  Just when we thought reality was about to set in after the buzz from Smarty Jones wore off, Maryfield comes along to perpetuate this guy's inflated value.

4.  More Than Ready ($60,000 Vinery, KY)  -  Definitely a solid sire, but Vinery's getting a little greedy here.  Less than 25% of his stakes winners are of the graded variety (well below the 33% threshold we like to see in the price range) and he's not breaking even with the opportunities afforded him by his mares (1.82 vs. 1.98).  Fee needs shaved at least in half.

5.  Mineshaft ($75,000 Lane's End, KY)  -  We're probably jumping on this guy way too soon, but we're predicting a scenario where he settles in as a very useful type at 40-50k, making his 2008 fee fairly risky.  Spend your $75,000 in 2008 on a horse who has already demonstrated he belongs at this price point, then breed to Mineshaft for $40,000 in 2009.

1.  Rahy ($60,000 Three Chimneys Farm, KY)  -  With yearlings averaging over $120,000 the last two years, and and average earnings per start of $6,608, Rahy is one of the few sires out there capable of providing healthy returns to those breeding commercially as well to race. The epitome of investment versatility.

2.  El Prado ($75,000 Adena Stallions, KY)  -  Strong numbers from all angles.  Improves mares significantly, average runner earns nearly $100,000... and his progeny are well respected in the commercial markets.

3.  Indian Charlie ($50,000 Airdrie Stud, KY)  -  Profit margins are a bit tight in the commercial marketplace, but it's pretty tough to fault his progeny at the track.  Does a lot with his opportunities (1.92 AEI vs. 1.47 CI), racking up numbers equal to or better than many of his more expensive counterparts.

4.  Dixieland Band ($50,000 Lane's End Farm, KY)  -  Numbers have slipped slightly in recent years, but not like we typically see in sires at this stage of their career.  Still well over 10% SW's from starters with sales numbers that give investors an array of options.

1.  Sky Mesa ($30,000 Three Chimneys Farm, KY)  -  All the signs of a major flop, leaving last year's investors holding an awfully expensive bag.  Just 1 stakes horse and 2 repeat winners from 43 starters, an AEI of .68 (versus a 2.17 CI) and his progeny are winning at a paltry 11% clip against maiden company.  Should fit nicely in Pennsylvania next year at $5,000.

2.  Aldebaran ($30,000 Darby Dan Farm, KY)  -  Indicators aren't quite as bleak as Sky Mesa's, and there's a slight possibility that he'll get back on track, but investors should tread carefully here and demand better terms.  Sales numbers have begun to slip,and half of his first 25 starters have banked $3,100 or less.

3.  Tiznow ($30,000 WinStar Farm, KY)  -  Way too top heavy for this price range.  Get beyond the headliners, and there a lot of holes in Tiznow's numbers.  Currently has less than half the stakes winners needed for the 10% stakes winners from starters benchmark and drags his mares down by over 27%.  Useful enough, but not at this investment level.

4.  El Corredor ($30,000 Hill N Dale Farms, KY)  -  Another useful type that simply needs a fee reduction to keep investors from taking a bath. Stakes production and average earnings per starter ($44,834) are no where near what they should be for a $30,000 fee.

5.  Orientate ($25,000 Gainesway Farm, KY)  -  Looking for a sure fire way to lose money?  Breed your mare to Orientate.  Whether your breeding commercially or to race, the chances of getting your money back are remote.  Median yearling price has been $37,000 for two consecutive years, well below the amount needed to turn a profit on a $25,000 fee.

1.  Successful Appeal ($40,000 Walmac Farm, KY)  -  Simply put, he's getting it done in all areas, regardless of the angle you take.  Finally getting respect in the sales ring after siring 20% stakes horses from starters (over a third of them graded) and improving upon his opportunities by over 51%.

2.  Silver Deputy ($30,000 Brookdale Farm, KY)  -  One of just a handful of affordable sires offering breeders a proven sire record along with a healthy rate of return in the sales ring.  Strong numbers on the track for years with consistent six figure averages for his yearlings.

3.  Theatrical ($40,000 Hill N Dale Farm, KY)  -  The turf version of Silver Deputy... long time success story remains a favorite of yearling buyers around the world.  Over two thirds of his stakes winners earn their credentials against graded company and his runners bring home an average paycheck of $7,802 every time they leave the starting gate.

4.  Arch ($25,000 Claiborne Farm, KY)  -  Just a touch below the above three in terms of profit margins in the sales ring, though he's generally profitable and gets graded stakes horses at a pace we've seldom seen before in this price range.

1.  Aptitude ($20,000 Juddmonte Farms, KY)  -  Everyone's losing money here.  Yearling median price of $25,500 and $22,000 over the last two years pretty much guarantees a losing proposition for investors.  Those looking to the track could do better with just about any other stallion in this price range as his foals seldom menace against stakes company and win at a paltry 11% clip.

2.  Touch Gold ($20,000 Adena Springs, KY)  -  This guy can't compete with many $7,500 sires out there, let alone those in the $20,000 range.  Squanders the opportunities provided by a powerful racing stable (1.51 AEI vs. 2.30 CI).  Get beyond the top two or three performers, and there isn't much to like. 

3.  Mizzen Mast ($20,000 Juddmonte Farms, KY)  -  Definitely showing signs of life, particularly with his two year olds, but Juddmonte shouldn't expect customers to subsidize him while we see how the numbers play out.  Ultra risky at this price, especially when considering his 2007 median yearling price of $14,500.

4.  Valid Expectations ($17,500 Lane's End Texas, TX)  -  Considering his progeny struggle outside of Texas, where the purse structure is anemic at best... and his median yearling price last year was $9,000... the current fee makes no sense whatsoever.

5.  Holy Bull ($15,000 Darley, KY)  -  Doesn't need a large price adjustment, but he's hard to get behind at this price point when he only gets 6% stakes winners from starters, a figure likely impacted by his tendency to get fragile types.

1.  Gulch ($20,000 Lane's End Farm, KY)  -  Breeders are hard-pressed to find such a proven commodity (both on the track and in the sales ring) at this price point.  Progeny earn an average of $94,974, a figure made more impressive by the fact that so many compete for paltry European purses.  Gets durable types who compete on all surfaces at all distances.  At this price, mare owners should be lined up all the way to the state border.

2.  In Excess ($17,500 Vessels Stallion Farm, CA)  -  Legacy is being further cemented through successful sons Indian Charlie and Gibson County, though neither were necessary considering In Excess' ability to get progeny at all levels of American racing from questionable California mares.  Foals sell well, once they get out of the depleted California market.

3.  Quiet American ($20,000 Darley, KY)  -  Slowing down just a bit, likely due to central Kentucky's lack of interest in older, mid-level sires, but continues to put up solid numbers on the track while slowly becoming a major force as a broodmare sire.

4.  Mutakddim ($15,000 Hill N Dale Farm, KY)  -  Numbers are slightly skewed by his South American offspring, but for those who want to help their mares in the long term, Mutakddim has been getting it done for years, despite the shunning they take in the U.S. marketplace.

1.  Real Quiet ($10,000 Penn Ridge Farm, PA)  -  Currently getting stakes winners at a paltry 3% clip while his yearlings are commanding a $4,500 median price.  Combined with the fact that his genetics are loaded for getting crooked foals, this guy is a financial disaster waiting to happen.

2.  Red Bullet ($10,000 Adena Springs South, FL)  -  Has a slight chance of turning things around, but considering he doesn't have a single graded stakes horse and he's dragging his mares down by 46% (1.11 AEI vs. 2.08 CI), investors should be demanding Adena cut his current fee by at least 50%.

3.  Yonaguska ($10,000 Vinery, KY)  -  Just six stakes winners from 147 starters, none of which are graded.  Great sire if you want a big/flashy show horse, but those breeding racehorses face a losing proposition with this guy.  Needs to find a home in a regional market.

4.  Jump Start ($10,000 Overbrook Farm, KY)  -  Not a total throw away, but Jump Start has no business in this price range.  Drags his mares down, gets less than 5% stakes winners from starters, and has just one graded stakes winner.  Better suited for the $3,500 price range.

5.  Easing Along ($10,000 Claiborne Farm, KY)  -  One word: Luhuk (remember when Gainesway brought Luhuk to Kentucky and gouged investors to the tune of $10,000?).  Mare owners need to heed history and avoid a likely money pit.  Guarantee at least 75% of all commercial breeders will lose money going this route.

1.  Pure Prize ($12,500 Vinery, KY)  -  Tough to find commercial viability at this price point, but it's tough to find a sire with Pure Prize's track numbers: Nearly 10% stakes winners from starters, over $5,500 per start while improving his mare by 30%.  A third of all his stakes winners are graded, and his chief earner makes up only 16% of his total progeny earnings.

2.  Benchmark ($10,000 River Edge Farm, CA)  -  Stakes production lags behind Pure Prize a bit, but he still puts up respectable numbers despite a 1.27 Comparable Index.  Gets more than his share of graded stakes winners and improves his mares significantly.

3.  Belong to Me ($12,500 Lanes End, KY)  -  The margins are tight, but Belong to Me is about the only sire in this group to offer any hope of success in the sales ring.  Track numbers are solid from most angles, though sounder mares are likely in order considering how fragile his progeny can be.

4.  Montbrook ($10,000 Ocala Stud Farm, FL)  -  Will seldom get a two turn horse, but continues to put up solid numbers year after year, particularly as a sire of 2yo's in training with five of the nine offered this year exceeding six figures.

1. Buddha ($5,000 Pin Oak Lane Farm, PA)  -  Scary to imagine how much money mare owners lost with this guy.  Last time we saw numbers this bad was with Gentlemen, who's now standing in Louisiana for a soft $1,000.  Shouldn't be allowed within 100 feet of a thoroughbred mare at any price, let alone $5,000.

2.  Millennium Wind ($5,000 Highcliff Farm, NY)  -  Numbers are equally as bad as Buddha's, placed 2nd here simply because he didn't leave investors holding such an empty bag when he was banished from Kentucky.  Connections have no business asking mare owners to write a check for his services.

3.  Sunday Break ($7,500 Walmac Farm, KY)  -  Not quite as hopeless as Buddha and Millennium Wind, but his chances of turning things around are getting slimmer by the day.  With just two stakes horses from 62 starters (no stakes winners), look for Sunday Break to be peddling his services to a regional market next year.

4.  Lido Palace ($5,000 Lambholm South, FL)  -  Competing almost exclusively against maidens, Lido Palace's progeny are winning at a miserable 6% clip with average earnings per start of just over $1,300.  Has all the warning signs of a Buddha implosion.

5.  Wheelaway ($6,000 McMahon of Saratoga Thoroughbreds, NY)  -  Similar to Sunday Break in that he has a minor chance of turning things around, but to fork out $6,000 for a sire with only a slightly higher median earnings per starter ($6,084) is a great way to run a mare owner's program into the ground.

1.  Put It Back ($7,500 Bridlewood Farm, FL)  -  Hitting on all cylinders with strong numbers across the board.  Progeny win at a 20% clip while over 62% of his stakes winners are graded caliber.  The poster boy for performance over pedigree.

2.  Pioneering ($5,000 Overbrook Farm, KY)  -  As tried and tested as they come, this guy simply has no holes and can't be overlooked by breeders on a budget.  Graded stakes production is off the charts for a sire in this category, and he surprisingly gets a high number of durable types.

3.  Memo ($6,000 Ridgeley Farm, CA)  -  When they hold up, Memo's progeny can knock heads with the best, whether it's in open company or against Cal-breds.  Improves his mares by 34%, but you really have to breed an iron mare to him.

4.  Concerto ($7,500 Ocala Stud Farm, FL)  -  Gets useful and durable types and more than his share of stakes caliber runners.  Numbers are respectable in just about any price category, including a very healthy median earnings of $26,880.

5.  Evansville Slew ($2,500 Diamond G Ranch, OK)  -  Doesn't get quite the number of graded stakes horses as those above, but he's not bad considering his comparable index of .95.  Probably the best $2,500 sire we've seen over the last 15 years.