Conformation vs. Catalog
Has the pendulum swung too far in favor of conformation?
Back in the mid to late 1980’s, the spending habits of D.Wayne Lukas changed the landscape of the American yearling market. Prior to his influence, American buyers focused primarily on the catalog page, with conformation a secondary consideration. Consignors with yearlings by top sires and out of a stakes producing dams could almost bank on a profitable year. Those with barren catalog pages usually came out near the bottom of the market.
The Lukas influence persists today, engrained further into the spending habits of American buyers by the growth of the pinhooking market. Pinhookers developed their own version of Lukas’ legacy, a version that drives a large portion of today’s market.
But has the overwhelming preference for conformation gone too far? Are there instances where a buyers’ passion for conformation blurs their judgment, leading to poor buying decisions?
Back in 1997, researchers attempted to quantify the effectiveness of this phenomenon by studying yearlings from the 1992 foal crop. Based on their yearling purchase prices, individuals who brought three times their sires’ median yearling price, sold for at least $75,000, and were not out of stakes-winning or stakes-producing mares were included in the study. The idea here was to identify individuals who were likely purchased as a function of their conformation, and not their catalog credentials.
The resulting study group numbered just 23. The results are itemized below:
23 yearlings
23 starters
20 winners
Total Purchase Price: $3,202,000
Average Purchase Price: $139,217
Total Earnings: $1,334,848
Average Earnings: $58,036
Stakes Winners: 2
From this limited sample, the numbers suggest that buying on conformation alone is haphazard at best. At face value, the numbers are discouraging enough, but when the training costs are factored in, the outlook is even bleaker. The knee-jerk inference is that when buyers let their psychological pendulum swing too far in one direction, their investments are less likely to pay dividends.
However, it needs to be emphasized that we’re not dealing with a large enough sample size to make concrete inferences. Replication is necessary before we begin to formulate useful theory. For our attempt at replication, we’ve fast forwarded to the 2006 Keeneland September Sale.
In the back walking ring, we noticed an especially large group of potential buyers surrounding a handsome gray filly. Hip 2014 had it all in terms of conformation… good size and scope with lots of bone. Lukas, who adored fillies who “walk like a two dollar hooker, have the ass of a short-order cook, and the face of a princess”, would have loved this filly.
Her pedigree was a different story. By the abysmal failure Silver Charm, hip 2014 was out of Essence of Success, a Deputy Minister mare who failed to light the board in five lifetime starts. Going long, sprinting, or even on the grass, this mare had a difficult time getting out of her own way. The paper on this filly was an inverse of what potential buyers were looking at in the sales walking ring. A bigger dichotomy would be hard to find.
My client’s wife, a member of the show horse industry, instantly fell in love with her and had to have her. Her excitement subsided considerably when I explained the shortcoming we were dealing with in Silver Charm and Essence of Success. Ten minutes later, we watched the monitors as she brought $180,000. The scenario instantly reminded me of the 1997 study. More importantly, it prompted me to see if the 1997 study could be replicated with examples from this sale.
When the final results came out in the weekly magazines, we identified 25 yearlings that met criteria similar to the 1997 study. For our study, we filtered yearlings that brought three times the sire’s average, rather than the median. And only yearlings sired by unequivocal failures were used. This last parameter creates the ultimate example of a buyer’s willingness to ignore a failed influence and pay handsomely for one of their offspring. Sires include:
Aptitude
Cat Thief
Chief Seattle
Doneraile Court
Exploit
Greenwood Lake
High Yield
Honour and Glory
Horse Chestnut
Mazel Trick
Monarchos
Our Emblem
Real Quiet
Richter Scale
Silver Charm
Siphon
Stormin’ Fever
Tiznow
Vision and Verse
This will be a work in progress where we can monitor the success or failure derived from the school of thought where off-the-charts conformation can be used to justify a lack of pedigree credentials. Each individual (listed below) will be updated weekly with periodical analysis of their performance as a group, and relative to the 1997 study. We invite your feedback on research design and methodologies. (Last updated: 5/9/08)
Hip #/Name Breeding Price Race Record
Global Winds |
Aptitude - Hurricane Judy |
280,000 |
|
Centurian Lady |
Cat Thief - Lady Laika |
120,000 |
|
Cosmo Star |
Cat Thief - May Star |
150,000 |
|
Saugatuck River |
Cat Thief - French Line |
120,000 |
4-0-0-2 $10,880 |
Job Security |
Cat Thief - General's Mistress |
100,000 |
5-1-1-0 $17,658 |
O.K. Florence |
Chief Seattle - Abby's Magic |
60,000 |
|
Lord Tik Tik |
Doneraile Court - Saratoga Lady |
100,000 |
6-0-0-0 $4,356 |
One Smooth Stone |
Doneraile Court - Carpenter's Lace |
100,000 |
|
Tripped the Light |
Exploit - Eastside Westside |
67,000 |
7-0-1-1 $7,740 |
Falcon Bay |
Greenwood Lake - Muse One |
200,000 |
|
High Standing |
High Yield - Nena Maka |
80,000 |
|
Tonche |
Honour and Glory - Victory Road |
130,000 |
2-0-0-1 $5,600 |
Pamdiid |
Horse Chestnut - Ladue |
130,000 |
|
Greystone Warrior |
Monarchos - Halo Miss America |
190,000 |
2-0-2-0 $16,000 |
Restless Kitten |
Our Emblem - Restless Cat |
150,000 |
3-0-0-0 $412 |
Stormster |
Real Quiet - A Chance of Storm |
75,000 |
2-0-0-0 $114 |
Sweetastupelohoney |
Richter Scale - Aerodyna |
45,000 |
|
Mountain Wind |
Richter Scale - Mountain Wind |
45,000 |
4-1-0-0 $8,010 |
Bella Talia |
Richter Scale - Ada Ruckus |
55,000 |
|
Whistle |
Silver Charm - Miss Universal |
230,000 |
1-0-0-0 $175 |
Essence of Charm |
Silver Charm - Essence of Success |
180,000 |
1-0-0-1 $4,320 |
Ranchy |
Siphon - Final Legacy |
50,000 |
5-1-0-0 $31,006 |
Lady Chace |
Tiznow - Squall City |
290,000 |
4-2-0-0 $53,240 |
Vulcan |
Tiznow - Clear Destiny |
280,000 |
1-0-0-0 $400 |
Delahoya |
Vision and Verse - Kalosca |
250,000 |
